North Carolina Retailers Anticipate Strong Back-to-School Sales

(Raleigh – August 1, 2025) The North Carolina Retail Merchants Association and Appalachian State University Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis have forecast increased Back-to-School retail sales in 2025 with expected total sales of $84.5 billion, a 4.3% percent increase over last year’s Back-to-School sales of $81.10 billion.

“The forecast for 2025 Back-to-School sales shows the continued vitality of North Carolina’s retail industry, and the trust North Carolina consumers have in our retailers to find what they need for their students. We are encouraged by the strong projections as we head towards fall,” said Andy Ellen, President & General Counsel of the North Carolina Retail Merchants Association, which sponsored the study. “Retail is an integral component of North Carolina’s economy, meaning it is important to all of us that North Carolina retailers have a strong back-to-school season.”

The forecast includes projections for June-September 2025, to capture consumers who buy for year-round school and early shoppers.

In September 2025, the projected 6.1% growth is the strongest monthly gain of the season, following a steep drop in 2024. It also surpasses the 3.7% increase recorded in 2022, highlighting a robust recovery. The report reveals a consistent upward trend of retail sales over the past decade.

Overall, retail sales in the 2025 back-to-school season are projected to total $84.54 billion, up $3.46 billion or 4.3% from $81.08 billion in 2024. This rebound may reflect easing inflation, improved consumer sentiment, and a return to typical seasonal spending patterns following a period of volatility and slowdown during 2023–2024.

“This growth suggests that North Carolina consumers are not just keeping pace with inflation—they’re stepping up spending as economic conditions improve,” said Dr. Imran Arif, associate professor of economics at Appalachian State University and lead author of the forecast.

VIEW FULL REPORT